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Optimal stack probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. The team cost is the average cost of the top six optimal probability players on that team.
Highest leveraged team stacks: Rangers, Phillies
The Texas Rangers will face Cristian Javier for the third time this season, scoring just three runs against him in 11 innings pitched. Javier hasn’t gone deep in games, going only six innings once this year. Still, the Houston Astros’ bullpen is arguably the best in the league, having the lowest bullpen ERA. In eight games against the Astros this season, the Rangers have scored just 2.4 points per game, showing they’ve had minimal success against Houston at best. Despite low ownership and a relatively affordable stack, it doesn’t matter if Rangers can’t go on offense, which they haven’t been able to do so far.
The Philadelphia Phillies were hampered by the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday after winning nine straight games. Over the past two weeks, the Phillies have placed in the top five in ISO, wOBA and wRC+, so do we think the Phillies will fall back after an embarrassment or bounce back in authoritarian fashion? Well, that doesn’t look favorable as they will face Sandy Alcantara who has been phenomenal this season. Alcantara has had a heavy workload, averaging eight innings pitched in his last six starts. Alcantara hasn’t shown anything to make us believe his recent dominance is a total fluke, so anticipate when his arm could potentially giving is a prospect we might have to bank on. There are only a few offenses in baseball deadlier than the Phillies right now, so if there’s an opportunity to bust Alcantara and hope for the best, grabbing the leverage with the Phillies gives us a high risk, high reward opportunity.
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