Yu Darvish and Logan Gilbert are Tuesday’s best leveraged pitchers

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Jacob deGrom’s presence on this list has opened up some desirable leverage opportunities for some big pitchers if you want to turn away from deGrom. Yu Darvish, in particular, finds himself near the top of the leverage board as he takes on the Seattle Mariners tonight. Darvish had a reliable season for the Padres, and you know what you’ll get from him most nights. His actual and expected ERA and FIP are all around 3.50 which shows that he usually always gives up Something but never gets bombarded. We’ve seen Darvish’s hitting output increase over the season, but still not to the level we’re used to seeing with him.

Seattle had a strong start to September as they are in the midst of the tight AL Wild Card race, hoping to break their 20-year playoff drought. They placed in the top ten in wOBA and wRC+, paired with the third-highest ISO ranking in September. Their %Hardhit and Barrel% are both in much lower positions, so it looks like they could have had a lot of favorable rebounds. Darvish won’t come cheap with his $10,600 salary on DraftKings with an ownership projection below 8%. Despite the leverage, if you pay that premium for a pitcher, Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have much higher caps against lower overall offenses.


Logan Gilbert will be in the opposing dugout as Darvish as he finds himself at the top of the leverage board ahead of his outing against the San Diego Padres. Gilbert has pitched well for the Mariners this year, but maybe a little worse than advertised, as his predicted ERA drops to 4.12 from his actual ERA of 3.23. He doesn’t hit the most hitters with his seasonal rate of 22.5%, while still doing pretty well against opposing power. His HardHit% allowed is noticeably high at 46.2% for the year, so there could be some regression along the way. Nonetheless, he’s coming off back-to-back scoreless outings where he’s produced nine strikeouts each game, so he has confidence on his side.

It’s almost like the Padres are trying to catch the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Wild Card race with the way they swung the bats. They didn’t get the start they needed in September as they’re in the bottom six in wOBA and wRC+ with an ISO that offers upside potential in the energy department. San Diego has faced Gilbert before in July, seeing him post a decent outing allowing just one earned run of five and a third inning. He only had one strikeout in that game, which is concerning given some of the horses on this list. Luckily, Gilbert’s last two outings have been phenomenal, so if you’re looking to capitalize on that, there’s value here with Gilbert, given the leverage and affordability.

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